Covid-19, why stay alert in phase 2. The Beijing study

COVID-19. Italy, like the United States, has entered phase 2 (1,2). Essential, to avoid the definitive collapse of the economy. But we must remain careful, not to lose sight of the essential precautions to prevent new infections, warns a study in Beijing.

Phase 2 in Italy, the Beijing studio

A systematic review published on 6.5.20 from Chinese PLA General Hospital of Beijing considers the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the province of Hunan (China), in comparison with that recorded in Italy. (1) The researchers used an AI system (Artificial Intelligence.), in combination with a classical epidemiological model (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed, SEIR). In order to consider what distinguishes Covid-19 from other coronaviruses, its transmission by asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic individuals. (3)

'We compared the situation in Hunan, in China, which has a similar population to Italy to estimate our forecasts. Due to the similarity in population size and geographic location adjacent to Hubei, Hunan's public health measures may provide useful guidance for Italy to prevent further spread of COVID-19.

Our study shows that preventive government control can reduce the number of cases by comparing the trend of the epidemic in Hunan and Italy. Additionally, various control measures, including early detection and isolation of individuals with symptoms, traffic restrictions, medical monitoring, and entry or exit screening, can prevent the further spread of COVID-19. '

The scenario to be avoided and the limits of the study

Il worst-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, leads the Beijing researchers to suggest maintaining strict prevention and control measures in Italy until 5.8.20. To prevent a further spread of COVID-19 that could put critical care wards in crisis.

'Obviously our studio has some limitations', points out its lead author Wangping Jia:

- the scarcity of tests performed, in Italy as in other countries, does not allow us to have an exact picture of the number of infections, which is certainly higher than the official data,

- the contagion index (R0) may be overestimated, since the incubation period has not been considered,

- the suspected cases and the daily number of hospitalized cases were not considered in turn as they were unavailable.

Unpredictable factors and precautionary measures

Then there are some unpredictable factors, the researchers explain, such as i super spreaders. The 'super greasers', like the young and reckless night club-goer who blew up a new outbreak in the center of Seoul in recent days. (4)

The great greasers they are in fact all those who - albeit unknowingly, as they are asymptomatic - do not respect the precautionary measures and thus trigger a rise in the contagion index. With the risk, as happened in recent days in South Korea, of forcing the authorities to impose new social containment measures to prevent the collapse of hospitals.

We must be careful, precisely therefore, until the new coronavirus is gone. Do not be fooled by the fact that the containment measures are gradually being relaxed, nor by the good weather. Nor from the chatter from bars - which sometimes also emerge in the press and TV - according to which the virus has changed or attenuated over the months. Since there is no scientific proof of this.

The precautionary measures and science-based recommendations for strengthening the immune system through proper diet are collected in Volume I - People of our # Covid19abc trilogy. The book, not for sale, can be requested at this link.

Dario Dongo and Martina Novelli

Note

(1) Dario Dongo, Alessandra Mei, Andrea Gazzetta. Living with Covid-19. DPCM 26.4.20 opens phase 2. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade). 3.5.20/XNUMX/XNUMX, https://www.greatitalianfoodtrade.it/sicurezza/convivere-con-covid-19-il-dpcm-26-4-20-apre-la-fase-2

(2) Dario Dongo, Alessandra Mei. Opening Up America Again. The US 3-step plan. Egalité. 26.4.20, https://www.egalite.org/opening-up-america-again-il-piano-usa-in-3-fasi/

(3) Wangping Jia, Ke Han, Yang Song, Wenzhe Cao, Shengshu Wang, Shanshan Yang, Jianwei Wang, Fuyin Kou, Penggang Tai, Jing Li, Miao Liu, Yao He. Extended SIR prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in Italy and compared with Hunan, China. Front. Med. 06 May 2020, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00169

(4) Hyonee Shin. South Korea's Moon warns of COVID-19 second wave as cases rebound. Reuters. 10.5.20, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-koreas-moon-warns-of-covid-19-second-wave-as-cases-rebound-idUSKBN22M028

Dario Dongo

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Dario Dongo, lawyer and journalist, PhD in international food law, founder of WIISE (FARE - GIFT - Food Times) and Égalité.

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